Anthony Albanese holds an election-winning lead with just days left of the campaign, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll, with Labor leading the Coalition 52% to 48% on a two-party basis.
Albanese’s approval rating has ticked up slightly since the last poll two weeks ago, but Peter Dutton’s has slipped for the fourth poll in a row, with the Liberal leader’s public standing dropping as the campaign has progressed. The Essential poll shows more people have switched their support to Labor because of the campaign over recent weeks, and that two-thirds of Australians say they’re voting based on who will leave them better off in three years – rather than comparing their situation to where it was three years ago.
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The final Essential poll before Saturday’s election has found 32% of voters would give Labor their first preference, compared with 34% for the Coalition and 13% for the Greens. The poll of 2,163 voters found One Nation attracted 10% of first-preference support, Trumpet of Patriots 2%, while other independents won 9%.
It would give Labor a total 52.1% on a two-party basis, compared with 47.9 for the Coalition. On Essential’s separate “two-party-plus” vote, which allows voters to remain undecided, Labor was at 49.6% and the Coalition on 45.6%, with 4.8% undecided.
Tuesday’s poll result was a slightly better result for the Coalition from the previous poll in mid-April, where Labor was ahead 50% to 45%, with the balance undecided.
The Essential poll is in line with all other published polls. The Coalition has recently claimed that published polls are not in line with their internal research, which they claim paint a rosier picture for Dutton’s prospects of forming government.
The Essential poll finds Labor leads the Coalition among men (51% to 49%) and women (54% to 46%) on a two-party basis. Labor also leads among those aged 18-34 (58% to 42%) and those aged 35-54 (57% to 43%), while the Coalition leads among those over 55 years of age (56% to 44%).
Albanese himself retains a slight negative approval rating, with 44% approving of his performance and 47% disapproving, for a net approval of minus 3%. Albanese’s total approval remained the same from the last poll, but the number of people who “strongly” approve of his performance moved from 10% to 13% over the month.
Dutton’s approval ratings, however, further deteriorated to a net of minus 12% (39% approve, 51% disapprove). It continues a major cratering from December 2024, when Dutton had a plus 3% rating (44% approve, 41% disapprove).
The Liberal leader’s disapproval shot up another three points from mid-April.
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Asked about the election campaign itself, and how it had affected their vote, 23% of respondents said they were now more likely to vote Labor, compared with 19% of people saying they were more likely to vote Coalition. Another 12% said the campaign made them more likely to vote Greens, 17% said they were more likely to vote independent, while 28% said the campaign had no impact on their voting intention.
A key question at the heart of the election is whether Australians will vote based on their feelings about the last three years of Labor government or based on their expectations for the coming years. After three years of high inflation, rising prices and concerns about social cohesion, Dutton’s campaign has regularly asked, “Are you better off today than three years ago?”
Meanwhile, Albanese and Labor have said Australia is “turning the corner” and that better days are ahead.
Asked what was more important when considering their vote, 66% said they were thinking about which party would make them better off in three years and 34% said they would think about whether they were better off than three years ago. In December, the last time this question was asked in the Essential poll, the numbers were 68% and 32% respectively.
